$166.19
NVIDIA (11/12 close)
−4.34% | intraday as much as about −14% | after hours $168.10 (+1.15%)
cc Investment Morning Brief · 2026-11-13 (Friday)
2026-11-13 (Friday), about 08:50 Beijing. A sudden NVIDIA CEO handover, Treasuries catch up in a bear flattener, oil up and gold down, the S&P in negative gamma. Tonight at 21:30, watch the US October PPI (month 10).
Today's highlights
Coverage runs from about 11/12 08:00 through 11/13 ~08:50 (Beijing). US stocks, the official US Treasury CMT, and COMEX/NYMEX commodities are the 11/12 (Thursday) close/settlement; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are the 11/12 close, collected before the 11/13 open; the Nikkei is the 11/13 open. The United States is on standard time (Beijing = US Eastern + 13 hours). Gains are marked in red and losses in green.
NVIDIA's sudden CEO handover weighed on tech stocks, official Treasuries caught up after the holiday with a bear flattener, oil rose and gold fell, and the S&P closed below the gamma flip.
7,592.40
S&P 500
−0.35% | Nasdaq −0.39% | Dow −0.36%
5.10%
US Treasury 10Y (11/12 CMT)
+12bp | 2Y 4.86% (+13bp) | 30Y 5.43% (+8bp)
18.69
VIX
+6.86%
$95.82
Brent (January (1) settlement)
+3.30% | WTI $88.74 (+2.55%)
$3,885.30
COMEX gold (December (12) settlement)
−2.88% | silver −3.72%
$5.846T
US net liquidity
Total assets $6.759T − TGA $912.1B − ON RRP $250M
7,635
SPX gamma flip
Spot about 43 points below, negative gamma | near-term walls 7,700 / 7,500
- NVIDIA: Jensen Huang resigns immediately, Kress named interim CEO; closed at $166.19 (−4.34%), intraday as much as about −14%
- Personnel: Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO, and director, effective immediately; CFO Colette Kress becomes interim CEO and remains CFO; senior director Harvey C. Jones becomes the company's first chairman; the board has started an internal and external search for a permanent CEO; the 11/17 earnings report stays on schedule.
- Price: open $150.99 / high $167.14 / low $148.80, volume about 740 million shares (7.4 x 100 million); after hours (about 19:18 ET) $168.10 (+1.15%); market cap at the open briefly fell below $4 trillion.
- Ratings: Bernstein, Oppenheimer, William Blair, Evercore ISI, and others downgraded; Morgan Stanley removed it from the Top Pick list but still rates it Overweight, with a price target of $300.
- Flows: Vanda recorded retail net buying of $111 million (1.11 x 100 million) in the first 30 minutes of the open, the largest opening buy on its record.
- Source · NVIDIA announcement Source · Yahoo NVDA X post @fxtrader X post @unusual_whales · downgrades X post @unusual_whales · retail
- The three major US indexes closed slightly lower, and breadth was poor; AMD and Broadcom rallied the other way
- Indexes: Dow 52,297.09 (−0.36%) | S&P 500 7,592.40 (−0.35%) | Nasdaq 25,366.09 (−0.39%) | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index 10,506.67 (−0.54%) | VIX 18.69 (+6.86%).
- Structure: energy about +1.5%; materials and industrials were weaker; the NYSE had about 644 advancers / 2,225 decliners.
- Single names: AMD $585.30 (+5.86%), Broadcom $364.36 (+5.54%); CoreWeave $56.60 (−6.86%), Nebius −16.84%.
- Asia: ChiNext −2.44%, Hang Seng −1.26%, Hang Seng Tech −2.36%.
- Source · Xinhua indexes Source · Investing.com close Source · Xinhua Finance A-shares Source · Xinhuanet Hong Kong stocks
- Official Treasuries caught up after the holiday with a bear flattener, the 10Y moved back above 5.10%; the 30Y auction tailed slightly
- CMT 11/12: 2Y 4.86% (+13bp versus 11/10, +40bp on the week), 10Y 5.10% (+12bp), 30Y 5.43% (+8bp); 10Y TIPS real yield 2.86%, 10Y breakeven 2.24%.
- 30Y auction of $25 billion ($250 x 100 million): high yield 5.441%, a tail of about +0.4bp versus WI 5.437%; bid-to-cover 2.36 (previous 2.54); indirect 68.1%.
- Hike pricing: CNBC, relaying CME FedWatch, still has a December (12) hike fully priced, of which about 13% is for 50bp (TV18 writes 14.5%); the official tool page did not yield a figure this time.
- Indicative 10Y (CNBC/Tradeweb, 19:25 ET / Friday 08:25 Beijing, not the CMT): 5.129%. Tonight at 21:30, watch the US October (10) PPI.
- Source · Treasury.gov Source · CNBC Treasury story Source · CNBC 10Y X post @financialjuice · auction
- Initial claims were a bit high and existing-home sales hit a multi-year low; oil rose and gold fell
- Employment: initial claims 200,000 (20.0 x 10,000; expected 195,000, or 19.5 x 10,000; previous revised up to 191,000, or 19.1 x 10,000); continuing claims 1,697,000 (169.7 x 10,000, below expected).
- Housing: October (10) existing-home sales at an annualized 3.75 million units (375 x 10,000, −5.5%), the slowest since August (8) 2010.
- Crude: EIA commercial inventories unexpectedly rose 4.7 million barrels (470 x 10,000) to 414.4 million barrels (4.144 x 100 million), but Brent closed at $95.82 (+3.30%) and WTI at $88.74 (+2.55%) — the market was trading Trump's “we do not need a deal with Iran” and shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold: COMEX December (12) settlement $3,885.30 (−2.88%).
- Source · DOL Source · NAR Source · EIA Source · The Edge
- The S&P closed below the gamma flip and is still negative gamma; China's October (10) aggregate financing is still not out
- Gamma: on the CBOE delayed-chain calculation, SPX closed at 7,592.40, the flip is 7,635 (spot about 43 points below), near-term call / put walls 7,700 / 7,500; ZeroGEX's free page agrees.
- United Kingdom: third-quarter GDP was +0.7% q/q and +1.9% y/y, in line with expectations.
- China: as of collection time, the PBOC statistics department list still had no October (10) aggregate financing / credit / M2.
- Source · ZeroGEX Source · ONS Source · PBOC statistics department
Macro data at a glance
Data released over roughly the past 24 hours; the tables keep only a one-line reading, and definition details are expanded in “Additional detail” at the end of this section
United States
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous | One-line reading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial jobless claims (week ending 11/7, seasonally adjusted) | 200,000 (+9,000) | 195,000 (AP / Newsquawk) | 191,000 (revised up; originally 189,000) | Four-week average 195,250; the level is still low | Source · DOL |
| Continuing claims (week ending 10/31, seasonally adjusted) | 1,697,000 (−20,000) | 1,710,000 (Newsquawk) | 1,717,000 (revised down by 1,000) | Insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.1%; the overall picture is still benign | Source · DOL |
| Existing-home sales (October (10), seasonally adjusted annual rate) | 3.75 million units (375 x 10,000, −5.5% m/m, −8.8% y/y) | 3.80–3.86 million (380–386 x 10,000, multiple sources) | 3.97 million (397 x 10,000, revised; originally 399 x 10,000) | Slowest since August (8) 2010 | Source · NAR |
| EIA commercial crude inventories (week ending 11/6) | +4.7 million barrels (470 x 10,000), to 414.4 million barrels (4.144 x 100 million) | Newsquawk −110 x 10,000 barrels | About −90 x 10,000 barrels | A build should have been bearish, but it was overshadowed by the geopolitical narrative | Source · EIA |
| October (10) PPI (not yet released) | Tonight 21:30 Beijing | m/m +0.4% | core m/m +0.3% | y/y +6.6% | core y/y +5.0% | m/m +1.3% | core m/m +0.7% | y/y +6.3% | The most important data point today | Source · Investing |
China
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous | One-line reading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October (10) aggregate financing / new loans / M2 | Not yet released (as of 11/13 ~08:50 Beijing) | Aggregate-financing median about 1.5 trillion; loan median about −150 billion (−1,500 x 100 million) | For September (9), see the PBOC financial-statistics report for the first three quarters | It may still be released later today | Source · PBOC statistics department |
| 11/12 RMB central parity | 6.7174 (raised 17 basis points; the renminbi appreciated) | — | 6.7191 | The 11/13 central parity is usually published around 09:15 and was not out at collection time | Source · China News Service |
| 11/13 open market operations | No official announcement seen yet | — | The latest official notice is the 11/12 announcement | Secondhand figures were not matched to an original text and are not used | Source · PBOC open market |
Other regions
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous | One-line reading | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UK GDP first estimate (2026 Q3) | q/q +0.7%; y/y +1.9% | q/q +0.7%, y/y +1.9% | q/q +0.5%, y/y +1.4% | In line with expectations; services +0.9% led | Source · ONS |
| Germany October (10) CPI, final | y/y +2.8% (preliminary confirmed) | Preliminary 2.8% confirmed | September (9) y/y +3.3% | Published on 11/11, not a new print from last night | Source · Investing |
Additional detail (definitions and components)
- Initial claims: the four-week average is 195,250, unchanged from the revised previous figure; the level is still low, but it takes a little off the claim that “the labor market is under no pressure at all”; financial wires also carried an expectation of 194,000 (19.4 x 10,000).
- Continuing claims: initial claims were a bit high and continuing claims fell back; the overall picture is still benign.
- Existing-home expectations: Newsquawk 3.85 million (385 x 10,000); Econoday/CME 3.86 million (386 x 10,000); FactSet 3.80 million (380 x 10,000) (the sources do not fully agree). The previous figure is the FRED/NAR revised 3.97 million (397 x 10,000).
- Existing-home detail (NAR): inventory of 1.59 million units (159 x 10,000) and 5.1 months of supply; median price $416,700 (+0.4% y/y); Yun said mortgage rates rose to the highest since 2000 (aside from a single month in 2023).
- EIA: the holiday delayed the release to 01:00 Beijing time on Friday; gasoline +1.8 million barrels (180 x 10,000), distillates +4.1 million barrels (410 x 10,000); Cushing +0.1 million barrels (10 x 10,000); SPR −2.6 million barrels (−260 x 10,000); Newsquawk writes the more precise +4.657 million barrels (+465.7 x 10,000).
- EIA expectations: besides Newsquawk −110 x 10,000 barrels, earlier previews had also shown −60 x 10,000 and −148.3 x 10,000 (the two sources did not agree to begin with).
- China aggregate-financing expectations: an earlier relay of Cailian Press C50 was not re-checked in this window; the latest items on the statistics department list are still the 11/4 “regional aggregate-financing increment for the first three quarters” and the 10/14 first-three-quarters report; there is no October (10) release.
- RMB: onshore/offshore spot in the Friday morning session was not independently verified at a reliable timestamp and is not cited for now.
- Open market operations: a secondhand online claim of “2800 x 100 million in reverse repos / a net injection of 1400 x 100 million” was not matched to an original text and is not used.
- United Kingdom: published by the ONS on 11/12; production +0.1%, construction −0.7%; September (9) monthly GDP +0.2%.
- Germany: Reuters confirmed the preliminary; the m/m figure was not verified in the Reuters text this time and is not cited.
- Japan: October (10) CGPI at +7.1% y/y was already in yesterday's morning brief and is not treated as new data; FXBus noted that Vice Finance Minister Mimura again warned on 11/12 that FX moves were “too fast,” and USD/JPY touched 160.04 intraday. Source · FXBus
Treasuries: 2Y / 10Y / 30Y and TIPS
Treasury.gov 11/12 (Thursday) CMT and real yields; the market was closed on 11/11 for Veterans Day, so there is no official row. 1 day vs 11/10, 1 week vs 11/5, month to date vs 10/30; only yields are listed, and changes are in bp; breakeven = the same day's nominal CMT − the TIPS real yield, and breakevens are not color-coded
| Indicator | Yield | 1 day | 1 week | Month to date | What this number says |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y | 4.86% | +13 | +40 | +30 | The most sensitive to the policy rate; a 40bp jump in one week, as the market trades “more hikes still to come” |
| 10Y | 5.10% | +12 | +26 | +16 | The discounting anchor for mortgages and risk assets, back above 5.10% |
| 30Y | 5.43% | +8 | +18 | +12 | Long-term inflation plus the fiscal/term premium; the rise is smaller than at the short end |
| 2s10s (10Y−2Y) | +24bp | −1 | −14 | −14 | Bear flattener: the short end rose more, and the curve kept flattening |
| 2s30s (30Y−2Y) | +57bp | −5 | −22 | −18 | The premium of the long end over the short end was compressed sharply |
| 10Y TIPS real | 2.86% | +8 | +26 | +26 | The 10-year real return after inflation stepped up again, weighing on valuations and gold |
| 30Y TIPS real | 3.24% | +7 | +19 | +16 | The long-term real rate is 3.24%; tighter-policy expectations and the term premium rose together |
| 10Y breakeven | 2.24% | +4 | 0 | −10 | 5.10% − 2.86%: most of the nominal rise came from the real yield |
| 30Y breakeven | 2.19% | +1 | −1 | −4 | Long-term inflation expectations remain anchored; the market believes the Fed will hold inflation down |
- 2Y
- 10Y
- 30Y
The latest official day is 11/12; the chart has no 11/11 point. Source · Treasury.gov Source · Treasury.gov real yields
What the market is trading
- Bear-flattener catch-up: 2Y +40bp on the week, 10Y +26bp, 30Y +18bp; 2s10s closed at +24bp and 2s30s at +57bp, and the curve kept flattening.
- Real yields in the lead: the 10Y real yield rose to 2.86%, the breakeven was roughly flat and is down month to date — the market is trading “policy has to get tighter still,” not “inflation expectations have come unanchored.”
- Drivers: this week's hotter-than-expected CPI, several officials leaning hawkish, plus Thursday's oil rebound after Trump's comments on Iran.
- Auction: the 30Y tailed slightly and the bid-to-cover fell, a weak finish to a refunding week that was soft throughout (the 11/10 10Y tail of +1.0bp and bid-to-cover of 2.46 were worse); yields had already risen, so the auction itself drew a limited reaction.
Auction and supply
| Auction | Size | High yield | Bid-to-cover | Allotment / note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30Y new issue (11/12 13:00 ET / Friday 02:00 Beijing, settlement 11/16) | $25 billion ($250 x 100 million) | 5.441% (WI 5.437%, tail of about +0.4bp) | 2.36 (previous 2.54; average of about 2.44 over the last six auctions) | Indirect 68.1% (previous 72.3%), direct 20.5%, dealers 11.4%; sources agree, and the TreasuryDirect original PDF was not opened this time | Source · InvestingLive Post @financialjuice |
| 4-week bill | $115 billion ($1,150 x 100 million) | 3.955% (previous 3.890%) | 2.94 | — | Post @financialjuice · 4-week |
| Coming supply | — | — | — | On 11/16, sell 3-month $95 billion ($950 x 100 million) and 6-month $82 billion ($820 x 100 million); on 11/18, sell 20-year $16 billion ($160 x 100 million) | Post @financialjuice · follow-up |
Other tenors, intraday quotes, and hike pricing
- Other nominal CMTs (11/12): 3M 4.32%, 6M 4.42%, 1Y 4.65%, 3Y 4.90%, 5Y 4.95%, 7Y 5.02%, 20Y 5.48%; 5Y TIPS 2.64% (5Y breakeven 2.31%). Source · Treasury.gov
- Indicative (not the CMT) · Minkabu: New York 16:25 ET (Friday 05:25 Beijing) 2Y 4.879%, 10Y 5.125%, 30Y 5.451%. Source · Minkabu
- Indicative (not the CMT) · CNBC/Tradeweb: the 10Y at 19:25 ET (Friday 08:25 Beijing) was 5.129% (+2.6bp, previous close 5.103%); the 2Y and 30Y pages for the same timestamp timed out and are not cited. Source · CNBC 10Y
- Hike pricing: CNBC on 11/12, relaying CME FedWatch, has a December (12) hike at 100%, of which 50bp is “about 13%”; CNBC TV18 (about 07:37 Beijing) writes that 50bp has risen to 14.5% (12.7% the day before); the official CME tool page did not yield a figure; the Jin10 11/13 flash cited the old 11/10 figures and is not used. Source · CNBC Source · CNBC TV18
- @laochenusa: At 10:30 ET, intraday, 2Y 4.853%, 10Y 5.065%, 30Y 5.398%; the 10-year moved back above 5%, with the front and belly up more clearly (an intraday quote, not an official fixing). Post
Liquidity and funding
United States only. Net liquidity = Fed total assets − TGA − ON RRP; the component dates are often not the same day. The script was generated at 08:15 Beijing on 2026-11-13
| Indicator | Latest | Date | Change | Note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed total assets | $6.759T | 2026-11-11 | Weekly; 11/4 was $6.748T | The new H.4.1, on a Wednesday basis (usually released Thursday at 16:30 ET) | Source · H.4.1 |
| TGA | $912.1B | 2026-11-10 | −10.5B | The Treasury account fell, which releases liquidity into the market | Source · Treasury DTS |
| ON RRP | $250M | 2026-11-12 | +98M | Almost used up, and its effect on net liquidity is already small | Source · New York Fed RRP |
| Net liquidity | $5.846T | Dates spliced | — | 6.759T − 912.1B − 0.250B | Source · H.4.1 |
| Bank reserves | $2,970B | 2026-11-11 | Weekly | H.4.1 reserve balances of depository institutions | Source · H.4.1 |
| SOFR | 3.89% | 2026-11-10 | +1bp | Volume $3.159 trillion; target range 3.75%–4.00%; no new print on the 11/11 holiday | Source · New York Fed |
| EFFR | 3.88% | 2026-11-10 | Unchanged | Volume $98 billion ($980 x 100 million); in the middle of the target range | Source · New York Fed |
| Investment-grade credit spread | 90bp | 2026-11-11 | −1bp | ICE BofA IG OAS; index yield 5.84% | Source · FRED IG |
| High-yield credit spread | 330bp | 2026-11-11 | −4bp | ICE BofA HY OAS; index yield 8.11% | Source · FRED HY |
- Balance sheet: on 11/11 total assets were $6.759T, a bit above the $6.748T on 11/4.
- Daily items: the TGA fell $10.5 billion on 11/10 (105 x 100 million); ON RRP on 11/12 was down to only $250 million (2.50 x 100 million), small enough to ignore.
- Funding: SOFR and EFFR are steady in the middle of the target range, so overnight funding is not tight; SOFR +1bp versus 3.88% on 11/9 (financial wire).
- Credit: the latest spreads are still the 11/11 tightening prints, may not yet reflect Thursday's risk selloff, and have not yet lined up with the decline in US stocks.
Options gamma map
CBOE delayed options chain, generated at 08:15 Beijing on 2026-11-13; valuation uses the 11/12 close; the method note is at the end of this section
| Underlying | Close | Flip | Call wall | Put wall | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | 7,592.40 | 7,635 | Near-term 7,700 (full chain 8,000) | Near-term 7,500 (heaviest on the full chain, 7,000) | Negative gamma (about 43 points below the flip) | Source · CBOE Source · ZeroGEX |
| SPY | 757.12 | 763.17 | 775 | 750 | Negative gamma | Source · CBOE |
| QQQ | 688.17 | 695.59 | 700 | 680 | Negative gamma | Source · CBOE |
| NDX | 28,289.19 | 28,460.91 | 29,000 | Near-term 28,000 (full chain 27,000) | Negative gamma | Source · CBOE |
- What it means: with the S&P below the flip, market-maker hedging adds to the move and volatility is easily amplified, rather than the index being pinned between the walls.
- Key levels: the near-term floor is 7,500, and the ceiling to watch first is 7,700; spot needs to reclaim about 7,635 to get back to positive gamma.
- Cross-check: ZeroGEX's free page (an 11/12 15:59 ET snapshot) has the SPX flip at 7,635 and near-term walls at 7,700 / 7,500, matching this model.
- Disagreement: on the NDX, ZeroGEX's flip is 28,095 and it marks positive gamma, which does not match this model (28,461, negative gamma); use the CBOE chain calculation, and do not compare the two net-GEX sets side by side.
- @spotgamma (before the US open): the SPX flip is below 7,600, with negative gamma building toward 7,350. Post
Method note
- The near-term wall = the heaviest call / put GEX within ±3% of spot.
- Model convention: customers sell calls and buy puts.
- Delayed data run through the previous session's US cash close; open interest may not yet reflect the latest settlement.
- Do not compare absolute net GEX from different sources side by side.
Macro and central banks
| Entity | Point | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Fed pricing | A December (12) hike is still fully priced (CNBC relaying FedWatch); 50bp about 13%–14.5% | Source · CNBC |
| Daly (Stanford, Reuters) | “My inclination is that further tightening is still needed”; price pressure has spread into sticky services; she welcomed the tighter financial conditions from higher yields, “that gives us more time to make calibration decisions”; she did not join the camp that says “December (12) must be a 50bp hike” | Source · Daly / Reuters Post @financialjuice · Daly |
| Hammack (relayed by Newsquawk) | The employment side is meeting its goal and the inflation side has missed for years; policy needs to become restrictive; she prefers “smaller, steadier” hikes | — |
| Goolsbee | Inflation is “far above target,” and the Fed “is failing” on the inflation side; AI investment is a kind of stimulus; he does not want to lock in the December (12) decision in advance | Post @financialjuice · Goolsbee |
| Schmid | The enemy of inflation has not been defeated | — |
| Barr (the official Yale speech) | Talked about AI and inequality, not the rate path; the labor share of income fell to a record low of 52.8% in the second quarter of 2026 | Source · Barr speech |
| Williams (early Friday, about 07:56–08:10 Beijing) | @financialjuice relayed: the economy is resilient and “is not overheating,” but inflation is still high and stubborn, and the central bank must still act to get inflation back to 2%. The official speech was not opened; do not mix it with the old October (10) text | Post · must still act |
| IMF | @financialjuice: The Fed needs to maintain a restrictive stance to support disinflation, and it is “too early” to judge the effect of AI investment on US inflation | Post |
| US fiscal | @business: The October (10) budget deficit widened to $404 billion (4,040 x 100 million), up 42% year over year (Treasury data) | Post |
| People's Bank of China | The 11/13 open market operations and the central parity had not been published at collection time; the 11/12 central parity was 6.7174, raised 17 basis points | Source · central parity |
| People's Bank of China (quarterly report) | @ChineseWSJ: Continues to maintain an accommodative stance in support of growth, while worrying that rates are too low; analysts read this as no rate cut in the near term | Post |
| Japan | On 11/12 Mimura again warned that FX moves were too fast; USD/JPY touched 160.04 intraday and was around 159.86 at 21:44 GMT | Source · FXBus |
Policy and regulation
The “Nature” column distinguishes official announcements, media relays, and statements by the parties to the conflict
| Area | Point | Nature | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA personnel | Jensen Huang immediately resigned as president, CEO, and director; Kress is interim CEO and remains CFO; Jones is the first chairman; the board has started an internal and external search; earnings are released on 11/17 at about 13:20 PT | Company official | Source · NVIDIA announcement |
| Congressional testimony | House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mast: Jensen Huang has agreed to testify before Congress before Thanksgiving; Politico (Friday morning): the Senate Banking Committee chair is also asking Jensen Huang and Commerce Secretary Lutnick to testify | Media / lawmaker statements | Post @business · testimony Post @financialjuice · Politico |
| Export controls and the White House | USTR Greer called NVIDIA “a structurally important company”; the White House is discussing whether Lutnick stays, and a congressional inquiry into chip licenses for China, among other things | A media relay, not announced personnel or legislation | Post @financialjuice · Greer |
| Justice Department investigation | Semafor: the Justice Department has opened an antitrust investigation into NVIDIA and is also investigating Megaspeed and Super Micro; “there is no sign yet of criminal charges against Jensen Huang” | A media citation, not a closing statement | Post @financialjuice · Semafor |
| Trump's comments | The New York Times: Trump had urged Huang to “fight for his position”; on Truth Social he said the successor “can only be Apple's Tim Cook” | A political statement, not a company decision | Post @financialjuice · New York Times |
| Iran / Hormuz | Trump: “we do not need any agreement with Iran”; Iranian official media said two tankers were attacked or hit mines in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday night | Statements by the parties to the conflict, not a confirmed shipping stoppage | Post @financialjuice · Trump Source · CNBC |
| Russia–Ukraine | On 11/12 Putin met US envoy Witkoff and Kushner; Kushner said there will be multiparty talks next week (no time or place given); the Kremlin said the talks were useful | Official / statements by the parties | Source · FXBus |
| Yemen / Saudi Arabia | The Houthis said they struck Saudi oil facilities at Yanbu and east-west pipeline pump stations; the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted drones | Statements by the parties to the conflict | Post @financialjuice |
| China–US trade | The Ministry of Commerce: China and the United States are staying in close communication on tariff cuts, trade, and investment | Official statement | Post @fxtrader |
| China · accounting supervision | The Ministry of Finance: during the 15th Five-Year Plan it will strictly investigate financial fraud, and a three-year accounting-supervision campaign will run in 2026–2028 | Official | Post @NewsCaixin |
| China · capital markets | A CSRC official (Shanghai Stock Exchange international investors conference): reiterated comprehensive reform of investment and financing and financial support for scientific and technological innovation; since the start of the year, medium- and long-term funds have net bought more than RMB 600 billion of A-shares (more than 6,000 x 100 million yuan) | Official | Source · Xinhua Finance |
| China · refined products | The NDRC: from 24:00 on 11/12, gasoline and diesel prices are cut by 645 yuan and 625 yuan per tonne, respectively | Official | Source · Xinhua Finance |
Industries and the supply chain
Main thread: NVIDIA completed the official handover, and the stock rebounded from the low but still closed down; AMD and Broadcom strengthened; cloud firms' earnings diverged from the share prices; oil rose and gold fell
AI hardware / semiconductors
- NVIDIA price: the handover and the price are in today's highlights; the low of $148.80 sat close to the put wall around 150, then rebounded to a close of $166.19, and was $168.10 after hours. Source · Yahoo
- @unusual_whales: At least four firms downgraded — Bernstein to Market Perform, price target $400→$200; Oppenheimer to Perform and it withdrew the price target; William Blair to Market Perform; Evercore ISI to In Line. Post
- @JohnsonZ91127: Morgan Stanley's removal from the Top Pick list is because the shares have fallen more than 25% since being added on 10/2, triggering an internal stop; the rating is still Overweight and the price target stays at $300. Post
- @unusual_whales / @spotgamma: Vanda recorded that retail net bought $111 million (1.11 x 100 million) in the first 30 minutes of the open, about 41 times a normal open; @maitian99 separately cites a “60 times the daily average” figure, which should not be mixed with Vanda. Post @unusual_whales Post @maitian99
- @spotgamma: NVDA rebounded about 9% from the $148.80 low and held Wednesday's 150 put wall; 30-day 25-delta put IV was 68.1% at 9:40–9:50 ET, up 10.2 volatility points from 57.9% at Wednesday's close. Post
- @unusual_whales: NVDA's largest positive-gamma wall is at $187; $170–176 is heavy negative gamma, and volatility will be amplified. Post
- Semiconductors the same day: AMD +5.86%, Broadcom +5.54%, Applied Materials reported a better-than-expected quarter after the close (see Consumer / other), and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still closed down 0.54%. Source · Investing.com
- Optical modules: LITE closed at $624.65 (−3.61%) and was +2.88% after hours; COHR closed at $232.08 (−1.04%) and was +3.27% after hours; the watchlist had almost no new optical-module posts in this window. Source · Yahoo LITE
- @financialjuice: AMD will make an equity investment in PsiQuantum. Post
AI cloud / Neocloud
| Company | Close | Daily change | Point | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | $56.60 | −6.86% | Intraday low $50.17, +1.86% after hours; @business: the bonds rose on Thursday because better-than-expected results eased debt concerns — equities and credit read different signals | Source · Yahoo CRWV Post @business |
| Nebius (NBIS) | $128.64 | −16.84% | @aleabitoreddit / @JohnsonZ91127: Q3 revenue was $980.8 million (9.808 x 100 million; expected about $908 million, or 9.08 x 100 million, +68% q/q), adjusted EBITDA $465.8 million (4.658 x 100 million), and 2027 revenue guidance is $12–13 billion (120–130 x 100 million), but the stock fell hard | Source · Investing.com Post @JohnsonZ91127 |
Large models / AI platforms
- @business: Anthropic's record IPO plan is under scrutiny again because the NVIDIA CEO was suddenly removed, highlighting the link between the two companies. Post
- @BlueMoonTrades: Said the Anthropic IPO is “reportedly about six times subscribed”; no prospectus or underwriting document is attached; treat it as a rumor. Post
- @ChineseWSJ: TSMC approved an investment plan of no more than $1 billion in total (10 x 100 million) in Anthropic and OpenAI. Post
Data centers / power
- @financialjuice: SpaceX plans a supercomputing campus of about $50 billion (about 500 x 100 million) in Arizona (about 6,500 jobs), and more than $24 billion (more than 240 x 100 million) of new supercomputing infrastructure in the Rio Grande Valley. Post
- @financialjuice / @business: Bloomberg said advisers are discussing terms of a SpaceX–Tesla merger, which could be announced as early as December (12) or pushed to 2027; not yet officially announced. Post @financialjuice Post @business
- @andyz8818576155 (at the start of the window, relaying a research note): Bernstein and Aterio say forward data-center plans are 586 GW, and the “credible pipeline” is only 199 GW (about 34%). Post
- @AntonLaVay: After checking state by state, the hardest data-center limits were already in place before the midterms and both parties are doing it — for example, the Texas interconnection pause was signed by Republican Governor Abbott. Post
Energy / raw materials
- Crude settlement on 11/12: Brent January (1) $95.82 (+3.30%), WTI December (12) $88.74 (+2.55%); natural gas December (12) $3.340 (+3.89%), the biggest energy gain of the day. Source · The Edge
- Driver: Trump lowered expectations of a settlement, plus statements from the parties that tankers in Hormuz were attacked or hit mines; the large EIA build was overshadowed. Post @financialjuice · WTI Post @business · Iran
- The domestic refined-product price cut is in the policy section; the pricing window corresponds to the fall in the average price over the previous 10 working days, which is not the same period as Thursday's rebound in international oil.
- Iron ore: the China futures close was not opened to a verifiable original text this time; search snippets are not cited.
China industry
- A-shares rallied and then gave it back: Shanghai Composite −0.67%, ChiNext −2.44% (up nearly 2% at one point intraday); turnover on the two markets was RMB 1.93 trillion, up RMB 255.8 billion (volume up 2,558 x 100 million yuan). Source · Xinhua Finance
- A-share sectors: computing-power chips rallied intraday (Cambricon rose more than 8%, Enflame rose more than 13%), and gas stocks strengthened against the tape; precious metals and film-exhibition stocks weakened; northbound full-day net inflow could not be re-checked against the East Money article and is not used.
- Hong Kong stocks fell back: Hang Seng −1.26%, Hang Seng Tech −2.36%; Tencent at HK$398.8 (−2.64%), HSBC −0.64%; main-board turnover was HK$202.652 billion (2,026.52 x 100 million HKD). Source · Xinhuanet
- @ChineseWSJ: SMIC's third-quarter net profit more than doubled, and revenue rose 34% to a record $3.19 billion (31.9 x 100 million); Chinese chip stocks rose on Thursday as the market traded the idea that domestic suppliers may take more share. Post · SMIC Post · chip stocks
- @fxtrader: Robin Li launched a large-model trading platform, “Ciyuansuo”; the author reads it as “Baidu has stepped in as a middleman.” Post · Ciyuansuo
- @fxtrader: An online rumor that Tencent would lay off 50% was called a misunderstanding and a rumor by PR director Zhang Jun. Post · Tencent
Consumer / other
- @financialjuice: Applied Materials (AMAT) fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS $4.16 (expected $4.06), revenue $10.41 billion (104.1 x 100 million; expected $10.27 billion, or 102.7 x 100 million); fiscal first-quarter revenue guidance $10.6–11.6 billion (106–116 x 100 million; expected about $10.87 billion, or 108.7 x 100 million); released at about 05:08 Beijing time on Friday, which is after hours. Post
- Tesla closed at $397.45 (+1.69%); the merger discussion with SpaceX is in the data-center section; it is not an announced deal. Source · Investing.com
- NVIDIA's next earnings report is still on 11/17.
The tape and flows
US stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks are all the 2026-11-12 close; the Nikkei is the 11/13 open; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for 11/13 had not opened at collection time
| Index | Close / open | Daily change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,592.40 | −0.35% | Source · Xinhua |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,366.09 | −0.39% | Source · Xinhua |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,297.09 | −0.36% | Source · Xinhua |
| Philadelphia Semiconductor | 10,506.67 | −0.54% | Source · Yahoo SOX |
| VIX | 18.69 | +6.86% | Source · Investing.com |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,655.83 | −0.67% | Source · Xinhua Finance |
| Shenzhen Component | 11,197.98 | −1.68% | Source · Xinhua Finance |
| ChiNext | 2,509.43 | −2.44% | Source · Xinhua Finance |
| STAR Composite | 1,559.14 | −0.35% | Source · Xinhua Finance |
| Hang Seng Index | 24,008.55 | −1.26% | Source · Xinhuanet |
| Hang Seng Tech | 3,931.93 | −2.36% | Source · Xinhuanet |
| Hang Seng China Enterprises | 8,056.76 | −1.40% | Source · Xinhuanet |
| Nikkei 225 (11/13 open) | 61,223.41 | +404.05 | Source · Diamond |
US single names and structure
| Single name | Daily change |
|---|---|
| NVDA | −4.34% (after hours +1.15%) |
| AMD | +5.86% |
| AVGO | +5.54% |
| ANET | +5.06% |
| MSFT | +0.36% |
| COHR | −1.04% |
| LITE | −3.61% |
| CRWV | −6.86% |
| SMCI | −11.30% |
| NBIS | −16.84% |
- Sectors: energy rose for a fourth straight day and was among the stronger of the 11 sectors; materials, industrials, and parts of tech were weaker.
- Breadth: the equal-weight S&P fell, and breadth was negative.
- Equity-index futures: a Newsquawk snapshot (11/12 16:35 ET, just after the cash close) had December (12) ES −0.2%, December (12) NQ −0.1%, and December (12) YM −0.3%; the latest levels for the Friday Asian session were not independently verified and are not cited.
Flows and rates
- Turnover on the two A-share markets was RMB 1.93 trillion (up 2,558 x 100 million yuan); Hong Kong main-board turnover was HK$202.652 billion (2,026.52 x 100 million HKD); northbound net inflow was not re-checked.
- @DeItaone: The US 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell for a fourth straight week to 7.11% (previous 7.18%); this is not the same definition, or the same week, as the 7.33% October (10) average relayed by NAR. Post
Commodities and crypto
Commodities are 11/12 exchange settlements; gold also lists the roughly $3,877 spot level FXBus cited for the Friday Asian morning
| Instrument | Latest | Daily change | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (NYMEX December (12), settlement) | $88.74/bbl | +2.55% | Source · The Edge |
| Brent (ICE January (1), settlement) | $95.82/bbl | +3.30% | Source · The Edge |
| Natural gas (NYMEX December (12), settlement) | $3.340/MMBtu | +3.89% | Source · The Edge |
| COMEX gold December (12) (settlement) | $3,885.30/oz | −2.88% | Source · The Edge |
| Spot gold (Thursday close; about $3,877 in the Asian morning) | $3,877.84/oz | −2.76% | Source · FXBus |
| COMEX silver December (12) (settlement) | $50.065/oz | −3.72% | Source · The Edge |
| COMEX copper December (12) (settlement) | $6.1960/lb | −1.49% | Source · The Edge |
| US Dollar Index DXY | 103.19 | +0.27% | Source · The Edge |
| USD/JPY | 159.86 (intraday high 160.04) | +0.06% | Source · The Edge |
| USD/CNY central parity (11/12) | 6.7174 | Raised 17bp (RMB appreciated) | Source · China News Service |
| Onshore/offshore RMB spot | No reliable timestamp independently verified | — | — |
| Bitcoin (The Edge, 21:44 GMT) | $71,503.32 | −4.03% | Source · The Edge |
- Oil: trading Trump lowering expectations of a US–Iran settlement and statements from the parties about shipping disruption in Hormuz; the EIA build was overshadowed. Source · The Edge
- Gold: continued to be pressed by higher real yields, hike pricing, and a stronger dollar, and the December (12) contract settled below $3,900. Source · CNBC
- Natural gas led energy higher; look at it separately from tonight's EIA natural-gas inventories, which are not yet out (expected +65B).
- @Cato_KT: Updated the gold series, with the conclusion “it can be bought now”; a week ago the view was still to wait longer; this is a personal view, and the post does not give a spot price. Post
- @business: The ore-pricing system the copper industry has used for decades is cracking because of a severe shortage. Post
Today's calendar
Beijing time; the US is on standard time (Beijing = US Eastern + 13 hours). None of the “expected” figures in this morning's note have printed yet
Today (Friday 11/13)
| Beijing time | Event | Expectation / note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Already released overnight into the early morning | Initial / continuing claims, existing-home sales, EIA crude inventories, the 30Y auction | See above; no longer treated as awaiting release | — |
| Already open (from 08:00) | The Nikkei and other Japanese equities | Open 61,223.41 (+404.05) | Source · Diamond |
| About 09:15 | RMB central parity | Previous 6.7174; not out at collection time | Source · PBOC |
| As scheduled | PBOC open market operations, China October (10) aggregate financing / credit / M2 | Still not on the official list at collection time; it may still be released later today | Source · PBOC statistics department |
| 09:30 | A-share / Hong Kong open | Watch the overnight US session and the NVIDIA aftershock | — |
| 17:00 | IEA monthly report | Listed on the Investing calendar | Source · Investing |
| 21:30 | US October (10) PPI | m/m +0.4% / previous +1.3%; core m/m +0.3% / previous +0.7%; y/y +6.6% / previous +6.3%; core y/y +5.0% | Source · Investing |
| 22:10 | Boston Fed's Collins speaks | — | Source · Investing |
| 22:40 | Dallas Fed's Logan speaks | — | Source · Investing |
| 23:30 | EIA natural-gas inventories | Expected +65B, previous +77B | Source · Investing |
| 23:50 | Fed Governor Bowman speaks | — | Source · Investing |
The weekend and next week
| Beijing time | Event | Expectation / note | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday 01:00 | Daly public appearance again | Not the same event as the 11/12 Stanford speech | Source · Investing |
| Saturday 02:00 | Baker Hughes US rig count | Previous US rigs 463; previous total rigs 604 | Source · Investing |
| Saturday 08:00 | Fed Governor Jefferson speaks | — | Source · Investing |
| 11/16 (Monday) | 30Y auction settlement; 3-month / 6-month bill sales | 3-month $95 billion ($950 x 100 million) and 6-month $82 billion ($820 x 100 million) | — |
| 11/17 (Tuesday), after the US close | NVIDIA FY2027 third-quarter earnings | Official numbers around 13:20 PT, conference call at 14:00 PT | Source · NVIDIA announcement |
| Around 11/19 | The Anthropic listing window discussed in the market | Go by the company announcement; this is not a verified pricing date | — |
| 11/20 | University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final | Not today; the preliminary was published on 11/6 | Source · University of Michigan |
Where views differ
Bullish / buy the dip, or the bad news is out
- @fxtrader relayed Tom Lee: Jensen Huang's resignation “does not change the view that tech stocks bottomed last week,” and he treats it as an opportunity. Post
- @kevinxu: “Jensen resigning is actually bullish”; on Friday morning predicted “Huang will be back at NVIDIA before year-end” (a personal prediction, not company information). Post · bullish Post · return prediction
- Retail: net bought $111 million (1.11 x 100 million) in the first half hour of the open, the largest opening buy Vanda has on record; the stock recovered from a low of about $149 to $166. Post @unusual_whales
- AMD and Broadcom closed higher, and Applied Materials beat after the close; CoreWeave bonds rose because the results eased leverage concerns.
- @Cato_KT: After updating the gold series, the view is “it can be bought now.” Post
Bearish / cautious
- @aleabitoreddit: Has “no confidence” in NVDA for the long run after Jensen Huang's resignation; beyond the next two or three years of the existing revenue and roadmap, without Huang's vision the edge over AMD and Broadcom will be hard to sustain. Post
- @yuyy614893671: NVIDIA is “a single-core, star-shaped flat structure led by Jensen Huang,” called this “the beginning of the end of the Jensen Huang era,” and asked whether it could be like Apple bringing Steve Jobs back. Post
- @TJ_Research: The cool-headed view is that Huang cannot return to NVIDIA; the emotional view is that a sliver of a chance remains, but this is not like Altman being brought back to OpenAI. Post
- @leto_bao: “This is not a two-week story; the fuse was laid four years ago,” going back over AI export controls on China since 2022. Post
- Multiple investment banks downgraded; Semafor reported a Justice Department antitrust investigation (a media citation); the Senate is also asking Jensen Huang and Lutnick to testify.
- The official Treasury curve bear-flattened, the 10Y real yield is 2.86%, the S&P closed in negative gamma, and existing-home sales hit a multi-year low.
| Issue | One side | The other side |
|---|---|---|
| Whether Jensen Huang stays, and the NVIDIA valuation | Tom Lee says it does not change the view that tech stocks bottomed; kevinxu is bullish and predicts a return by year-end; retail bought at a record pace | Multiple downgrades; aleabitoreddit and yuyy614893671 are bearish on long-term governance; TJ_Research thinks it will be hard to bring him back |
| The successor | @fxtrader: Kress is the person to steady things in the short run; the strongest internal name is CUDA's father, Ian Buck, and the outside favorite is Arm CEO Rene Haas Post | Trump naming Tim Cook is widely seen as an unrealistic political statement |
| Retail and institutions | A record buy in the first half hour of the open | Multiple investment-bank downgrades and a long-term governance discount |
| CoreWeave / cloud firms | Credit rose on better-than-expected results, and the demand narrative is still there | CRWV −6.86%, and NBIS closed down 16.84% even though it beat |
| Oil and geopolitics | Trump lowered settlement expectations, and Hormuz disruption is supporting oil | The large EIA build should have been bearish; statements by the parties to the conflict have not been verified as a shipping stoppage |
| The size of the December (12) hike | The mainstream still prices 25bp; Daly said tighter financial conditions give more time to calibrate | 50bp is about 13%–14.5%; Goolsbee said the Fed is failing on its inflation mandate |
Gaps in the figures
- The official CME FedWatch tool page did not yield a number, so the December (12) probabilities come from CNBC / TV18 relays.
- The TreasuryDirect original PDF for the 30Y auction was not opened; the figures come from consistent secondary sources and financial wires.
- Williams's speech was not opened in the official text, only via a financial wire.
- The 11/13 central parity, OMO, and October (10) aggregate financing were all unpublished at collection time.
- Onshore/offshore RMB spot, iron ore, northbound net inflow, and the latest Friday Asian equity-index futures levels were not verified.
- The CSI 300 and STAR 50 closes were not checked separately (the STAR Composite was used).
- The latest credit spreads are still the 11/11 prints.
- The NDX flip disagrees with ZeroGEX, as explained in the gamma section.
Key sources
- NVIDIA: CEO transition announcementnvidianews.nvidia.com
- US Treasury daily yield curvetreasury.gov
- US Treasury real yield curvetreasury.gov
- Department of Labor: initial jobless claimsdol.gov
- NAR: October (10) existing-home salesnar.realtor
- Commodity settlement wrap 11/12edgeconsultancykw.com
- ZeroGEX: SPX gamma levelszerogex.io
- Fed H.4.1federalreserve.gov
For reference only. Not investment advice.